Dynamics and optimal control of a weighted-network dengue model with seasonal transmission
December 2026
In this paper, we introduce a novel dengue model on a weighted network to investigate the roles of human mobility, seasonal temperature shifts, and spatial heterogeneity. First, the positivity, global...
Infection dynamics for fluctuating infection or removal rates regarding the number of infected and susceptible individuals
December 2026
In general, the rates of infection and removal (whether through recovery or death) are nonlinear functions of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. One of the simplest models for the spread...
Resolving parameter uncertainty in SIR models through population-level serological surveillance: A synthetic study
December 2026
Epidemic models face a critical challenge: surveillance systems capture only a fraction of infections (often <10%). We reveal two fundamental problems. First, when models ignore underdetection entirely—treating...
Expanding optimization ensemble model methods for forecasting seasonal influenza in the U.S.
December 2026
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic sees significant variability in its evolution. Accurate forecasts of future influenza cases are important for planning public health responses. The United...
Dynamics of infectious disease spread between transportation hubs and surrounding communities
December 2026
Urban transit systems, particularly those in major metropolitan areas, are becoming increasingly interconnected, making it essential to better understand passenger mobility and its implications for...
Memory mechanisms for behavioural change in Bayesian individual-level spatial epidemic models
December 2026
Accurate modelling of infectious disease transmission often requires capturing how individuals adjust their behaviours in response to evolving epidemic conditions. While recently developed behavioural...
Modeling two-strain competition with reinfection: Mathematical analyses and epidemiological implications
December 2026
We propose a new epidemic model for the interactions between two different strains associated with the same pathogen. Our focus is how the competition between multiple strains and the impact of reinfection...
Rapid assessment of local disease control measures against the Marburg virus outbreak in Ethiopia in late 2025
December 2026
In November 2025, Marburg virus caused the first outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Ethiopia. By December 15, a total of 14 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported, including 9 deaths, corresponding...
Quantitative risk assessment of avian influenza: A scoping review
December 2026
Avian influenza virus (AIV) continues to pose serious risks to animal and public health. Understanding its spread requires integrating ecological, agricultural, and human information. Quantitative models...
When hosts gather: how extreme seasonal aggregation affects epidemiological outcomes
December 2026
Wildlife aggregate for many reasons (e.g. reproduction, feeding) and at times these aggregations can be extreme, with host densities increasing several orders of magnitude. While the impact of seasonality...
Modeling and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry using network disease dynamics
December 2026
In light of the ongoing 2022-2025 HPAI outbreak in the U.S., which affects millions of commercial and backyard flocks, disrupts egg and meat production, and causes significant economic losses, it is...
Predicting the spatiotemporal evolution of HIV/AIDS in Africa: A retrospective analysis of epidemiological trends
December 2026
Africa bears the highest global burden of HIV, with marked regional inequalities in prevalence, incidence and clinical outcomes. Mapping the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic is essential...
Comparing methods to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers using genomic and epidemiological data
December 2026
Estimating the time-varying reproduction number Rt during an epidemic is important. Rt indicates whether an epidemic is growing or declining and can aid in assessing the impact of interventions. Recent...
Seasonal Dynamic Model for Projecting Tuberculosis Epidemiological Trends in Kyrgyzstan
Available online 13 October 2026
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health burden in Kyrgyzstan; however, the seasonal transmission dynamics of TB in the country have not been quantitatively characterized. This study aimed to...
Ensemble-labeling of infectious disease time series to evaluate early warning systems
September 2026
Early warning systems (EWSs) for detecting disease outbreaks can help make informed public health decisions and organize necessary responses. During the COVID-19 pandemic, several EWSs were proposed...
Within host dynamics of HPV infection with cellular immunity and HPV-infected dormant cells reactivation
September 2026
Like other viruses, human papillomavirus genotypes can remain dormant for years or decades and later reactivate due to some well-known factors. The activation of such a dormant infection years later...
Modelling the effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria transmission dynamics in Kebbi State, Nigeria
September 2026
Malaria, in Nigeria, is a disease of public health concern that has caused both morbidity and mortality, with the highest prevalence in Kebbi State. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been...
Results of the epidemiological measurement of endemics, epidemics, and pandemics
September 2026
Reliable characterization of infection dynamics is critical for managing endemic, epidemic, and pandemic outbreaks. A persistent challenge in epidemiology is the lack of a unified quantitative framework...
Stochastic control of influenza spread: A Lévy-driven SDE and branching process approach
September 2026
Forecasting influenza outbreaks remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of disease transmission and the influence of environmental and behavioral factors. Traditional models based solely...
How to utilise the limited supply of vaccines for Mpox control in Thailand among high-risk GBMSM
September 2026
Mpox re-emerged globally in 2022, disproportionately affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). In 2024, Thailand became the first Asian country to detect Clade Ib Mpox, prompting...
A systematic comparison of methodologies for the estimation of the serial interval
September 2026
Serial interval (SI) is a crucial indicator for characterizing the course of epidemic transmission and provides guidance in designing the intervention strategy for preventing epidemic spreading. Many...
Dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model with deterministic/stochastic migration and distributed delays
September 2026
We study the global dynamics of a two-patch epidemic model that integrates spatial migration, Erlang-distributed delays, and environmental stochasticity. The two patches are coupled by migration whose...
Retrospective evaluation of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts for influenza hospital admissions — United States, 2022–2025
September 2026
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates influenza forecasting efforts with approximately 30 academic and industry teams and combines their short-term, weekly forecasts...
Acute respiratory infection (COVID-19) risk prediction in travelers: A random forest model
September 2026
Early screening during outbreaks of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is critical for controlling disease spread among international travelers. However, the massive volume of traveler data generated...
